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Sober Look

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Sober Look is a no-hype financial blog that typically relies on data analysis and primary sources. Posts are intended to be succinct, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be ...more
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33 to 48 of 290 Posts
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Argentina Running Out Of Options
Thursday, September 25, 2014 4:35 AM EDT
With Argentina's private sector in disarray, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's government has been forced to increasingly bail out failing businesses, particularly importers that are critical to Argentina's stability.
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Watch US Inflation Expectations
Wednesday, September 24, 2014 5:54 PM EDT
China's "no stimulus" pledge and falling commodity prices are sending US inflation expectations to multi-year lows.
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Time For A Contrarian View: Eurozone's Economy Is Turning The Corner
Monday, September 22, 2014 5:02 AM EDT
The take-up of the ECB's TLTRO program announced back in June was materially lower than expected. About €83bn worth of cheap long-dated loans was picked up by the area's banking system.
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Ukraine On The Brink
Sunday, September 21, 2014 3:18 PM EDT
While we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn't been sufficient discussion about its dire economic and fiscal conditions. It's the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink.
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PBoC Joins Other Major Central Banks With Unconventional Monetary Policy Action
Thursday, September 18, 2014 4:44 AM EDT
Softer than expected economic growth in China has finally spurred the PBoC into action. However, rather than undertaking asset purchases that would inject reserves into the overall banking system, the PBoC forced liquidity directly into state-owned banks.
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China About To Miss The 7.5% GDP Growth Target
Monday, September 15, 2014 10:15 AM EDT
Economic reports from China continue to disappoint.
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Will The FOMC Remove "Considerable Time" Language From Its Statement?
Monday, September 15, 2014 7:07 AM EDT
The markets' interpretation of "considerable time" contains too much certainty about the timing of "liftoff," which until recently had resulted in declining volatility across asset classes.
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Middle Market CLO Primer
Friday, September 12, 2014 4:58 AM EDT
Here is a great middle market collateralized loan obligation (CLO) primer from Wells Fargo
In this article: WFC
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Bubble Forming In US Middle Market Leveraged Finance
Friday, September 12, 2014 3:15 AM EDT
US middle market leveraged buyout (LBO) transactions are becoming increasingly frothy. According to the latest data from Lincoln International, risk-return fundamentals in the space are worse than they were in 2007.
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Markets Expect Negative Overnight Rates In The Eurozone Through Mid 2016 As Reserves Become A "Hot Potato"
Sunday, September 7, 2014 11:06 PM EDT
The ECB hopes to force the banking sector into more lending, with some lenders preferring extra credit risk over the pain of holding reserves.
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US Labor Markets Q&A
Sunday, September 7, 2014 8:22 PM EDT
Sober Look goes through some key facts about the US labor market, discussing current issues and trends.
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Market Reaction To The ECB Announcement
Friday, September 5, 2014 7:07 AM EDT
The ECB rolled out the big guns today but stopped short of an all-out quantitative easing. In addition to the TLTRO, there will be ABS and mortgage bond purchases.
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Once Again We Wait For "shock And Awe" From The ECB
Tuesday, September 2, 2014 6:42 AM EDT
The ECB (Eurosystem) balance sheet continues to decline as the LTRO/MRO loans to the banking system are repaid. We've seen a decline of about one trillion euros in the past year and a half.
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Japan Moves From Paul Krugman's Liquidity Trap To Haruhiko Kuroda's "indefinite QE" Trap
Monday, September 1, 2014 2:13 PM EDT
Japan's 10-year government bond yield is hovering around 0.5%, an all-time low.
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Markets Signaling Return Of Economic Weakness In China
Saturday, August 30, 2014 5:42 PM EDT
It seems that China is once again facing significant headwinds.
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Market Reaction To Weakening Fundamentals In Germany
Thursday, August 28, 2014 1:55 PM EDT
Investors also piled into the three-year government notes, sending those yields into negative territory for the first time since 2012. The German government is now getting paid to hold your euros for three years.
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