High yield bond ETFs are signalling a warning sign for income investors as they begin to fall in price.

“The contraction in the first quarter is not reflective of the underlying state of the U.S. economy and the subsequent flow of data points to a significant snap-back in the second quarter,” explained the chief economist at Regions Financial.

A leading non-partisan tax policy researcher, The Tax Foundation, estimates that your first 111 days belong to the U.S. government. When the estimate includes the effect of federal borrowing, the date moves to May 6.