Blair Jensen | TalkMarkets | Page 4
President of Downside Hedge
Contributor's Links: Downside Hedge
Blair Jensen is President of Downside Hedge which provides market commentary and hedging strategies for individual investors. His development of a stock market sentiment indicator based on the Twitter stream is changing the way investors and traders view ...more

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Market Health Diverging
Investors are getting less confident with each rally. It takes time to build a top so this indicator provides information and something to watch carefully, but nothing to act on … yet.
Twitter Top 10 Portfolio Turns Down
The Twitter Top 10 Portfolio is taking a turn lower this month. The portfolio is being hurt by JC Penney (JCP) down 8%, Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) down 5%, and Netflix (NFLX) down 4%.
StockTwits Top 10 Tracks Market
The StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio continues to track the market. For the past few months the performance between the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the the portfolio has been almost exactly the same.
End Of Long Trade For Twitter
The long signal for Twitter (TWTR) that was issued from both the Twitter and StockTwits streams on 5/28/14 and 5/29/14 respectively ended at the close yesterday (9/18/14).
Why Discipline Matters
Over the past few months we’ve had a few long trades that couldn’t maintain their momentum on the Twitter and/or StockTwits streams. As a result, we closed them quickly with small losses or gains.
When Leaders Lead The Downside
Yesterday the market had a soft day, but recent momentum leaders like Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook (FB) had extremely bad days. This showed up on yesterday’s most bearish list of stocks on Twitter.
More Warning Signs
It’s still early in the week, but I wanted to give you a heads up that our measures of trend are currently negative.
Caution For S&P 500 Index
Momentum from StockTwits and Twitter for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has finally cleared their extreme overbought conditions. Unfortunately, they are now in danger of breaking their confirming uptrend lines. A break will indicate that more weakness is ahead for SPX.
Chinks In The Armor
Although almost every indicator I follow is still positive I’m starting to see some chinks in the armor that suggest that a longer term top is in the making.
Short Watch List
With the market breaking below near term support it’s time to look at short candidates.
Twitter And StockTwits Stock Performance Chart Gallery
Here’s some charts I posted to Twitter and StockTwits last week…
Mixed Signals
Our social media momentum indicators for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are giving mixed signals this week. The core momentum indicators are still warning that some caution would be prudent.
New Picks For Twitter Top 10 Portfolio
Over the past month the Twitter Top 10 portfolio basically tracked the market. There were two big gainers Twitter (TWTR) and Gilead Sciences (GILD). Both were up around 14%. The big drag on the portfolio was El Pollo Loco (LOCO) down nearly 14%.
StockTwits Top 10 Portfolio Catches S&P 500
The StockTwits Top 10 portfolio continues to bounce around fairly closely with the market. This month it slightly out performed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) allowing it to play catch up. JC Penney (JCP) is the only stand out up nearly 15%.
Raising Cash And Adding A Hedge
This past week our measures of the economy dipped into negative territory. As a result, we’ll be changing our core portfolio allocations (details below). All of the rest of our core market health indicators dropped as well.
Gold Update
Today the gold ETF (GLD) broke below the rising trend line that had supported price. In addition, it broke down from of a triangle from the wrong side…the bottom.
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